Home > Island Watch Dog > The Reality of the Economic Paradigm Shift, by Robert Weintraub, Jan Cote-Mero, and Peter Johnson.


Travel down Amelia Island’s Buccaneer Trail – A1A south of Fletcher Avenue – and you pass “The Enclave” with iron gates eerily similar to the opening scene of the movie “Citizen Kane.”

But pass through the gates and you don’t find a millionaire’s mansion, but an unfinished quadrangle with 20 units built where some 100 were planned.

Only two homes are owned by individuals; the other 18 units are owned by two banks which took over the property when Summer Beach gave up on the development which had been touted to be one of Amelia’s finest.

This scene is replicated not only across eastern Nassau County, but throughout Florida. New residents are no longer flocking here by the hundreds of thousands; tourism is down significantly.

As a result Nassau has a three-year inventory of homes for sale which has forced resale prices down by 40 to 50 percent.

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Economic growth through residential and commercial development has ended, probably forever.


This is called a “paradigm shift,” a change in a fundamental model of events.

For example, the railroad barons thought they were in the railroad business, not understanding they were in the transportation business; the advent of the automobile, buses, trucks and airplanes ended the railroads’ rule of commerce.

Consider:

The county and the state both played a full part in the subprime mortgage excesses that brought down the American economy. Florida has ranked first in mortgage fraud among American states in three of the past four years.

In the fourth quarter of last year more than a quarter of all Florida mortgages were behind on at least one payment; more than a fifth were at least 90 days behind or already in foreclosure.

Nassau real estate agents report that prices have fallen by almost half from their peak as a result of the real estate market collapse. From May 1 to June 15 this year, there were 85 home sales east of I95; 60 were resales and 41 of those sold for less than sellers originally paid.

Five homes that had sold from $1.5 million to $3 million earlier were sold in distress at less than a million. Homes in planned communities such as North Hampton, which originally sold for $500,000 or more were selling for $250,000 to $300,000.

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